Peter's Blog

And Then Something Broke…

Over the past several months, Mike Maharrey and I have posted numerous articles that conclude the same way… the Fed is bluffing and when something breaks, they will fold. On every podcast, Mike has walked through exactly why this is inevitable. Back in September, I laid out the math that showed why the Fed would fold and laid […]

Treasury Prints Second Largest February Budget Deficit Ever

The Federal Government ran a deficit of -$262B in February. Ignoring the Student Loan forgiveness allocation in September last year, this is the largest monthly budget deficit since July 2021. And it’s the second-largest February deficit ever.

Household Survey is 40% Below Headline Number

As discussed last month, it is getting harder to take all the BLS employment data as fact. This month, some of the data is a bit closer in line, but the QECW report seemed to show a big deviation (more below).

Services Surplus Falls 7.3% MoM as January Trade Deficit Rises

The January Trade Deficit saw a slight increase compared to December, coming in at -$68.3B vs -$67.2B in the prior month. After peaking at -$106B in March of last year, the Trade Deficit has returned to a more stable range between -$60B and -$80B.

Annualized Interest on National Debt Up 75% Since Last Year

Looking at last month’s US Treasury activity, it’s clear that interest expenses are exploding upwards at an unsustainable pace. Annualized interest on the debt increased by $25 billion in a single month.

Money Supply Remains Well Below Trend

The seasonally adjusted money supply in January increased by $31 billion. This was the first increase in the money supply in five months.

Comex Results: Silver Has 60% of March Open Interest Roll in Final Day

This month, the conclusion is going at the top because it can be hard to read through and interpret all the data. In a nutshell, the data is sending mixed signals. Delivery volume is slowly drifting lower, but some of the underlying data is starting to show large deviations from the mean. In particular, silver […]

Comex Update: Palladium Contracts Represent 280% of Available Metal with 2 Days to Go

Gold deliveries in February came in quite low for a major month, totaling only 15,055. This is the lowest month going back to February 2020 (pre-Covid). The chart below shows the big spike in deliveries seen after Covid started. While the current month is still above any pre-Covid month, it is small when compared to […]

The Fed Books a Loss of $126B in February

The Federal Reserve came close but still fell short of its $95 billion per month balance sheet reduction target through the last full week in February. This means the Fed has fallen short in 8 of the last 9 months. And with rising interest rates coupled with even this modest balance sheet reduction, the Fed […]

Gold and Silver Technicals: This is a Healthy Correction if $1800 holds

The data over the last several months has been spot on in predicting the moves in gold and silver. November showed the market was in neutral, but then the December analysis correctly identified an impending move upward, and the January review concluded that gold may need a breather before moving higher. So, what about this month?