Peter's Blog

Comex Update: Gold Deliveries Pick Up Late in the Contract

Gold deliveries in January have reached 6,327 contracts with only 178 remaining in open interest. While this fell shy of the last five minor months, there are a few signs that are noteworthy. First, the delivery volume was greater than last January. This is important because January is typically a slow month after the major […]

Comex Inventory Withdrawals Have Slowed but Not Stopped

The flow of gold and silver out of Comex vaults has slowed in recent weeks, but there is no question that metal continues to move out. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical […]

Budget Deficit Exceeds $1.4T in 2022

The Federal Government ran a deficit of -$85B in December. While this was much smaller than the deficit posted in November, it marks one of the largest December deficits ever.  That pushed then 2022 calendar year deficit to over $1.4 trillion.

CPI: Saved by Falling Energy Prices

The CPI cooled again in December driven by a massive fall in Energy prices. As shown below, the fall in Energy has been a big reason for the recent drop in inflation. Commodities have also been a driver down as Used Cars and Trucks fell -2.5% MoM and -8.8% YoY. That said, stickier items like […]

US Debt Hits the Ceiling – Interest Payments Keep Growing

The US government has once again run up against the debt ceiling. Meanwhile, interest payments on the debt keep growing. The Treasury only added $6B of debt in December, allowing short-term debt to mature and replacing it with longer-term debt. This makes sense as long-term rates are below short-term rates with the inverted yield curve.

The Real Jobs Report Way Worse Than Headlines Suggests

The headlines keep telling us the US has a robust job market, but a deeper dive into the data tells a much different story.

Trade Deficit Falls Due to Weak Consumer

The November Trade Deficit saw the first contraction in four months and actually fell to the lowest level since October 2020. This was primarily driven by a collapse in Imported Goods as shown below.

A Bet on Bitcoin is Gambling on the Whales

Key Takeaways The price of Bitcoin has been suspiciously stable following the epic collapse of FTX less than 2 months ago The whales are defending the Bitcoin price at $16,000 waiting for interest to flood back into Bitcoin It’s hard to imagine a bigger hype train than 2021 which means Bitcoin may not make a […]

Managed Money Ends 2022 on Bullish Note

Please note: the CoTs report was published 12/30/2022 for the period ending 12/27/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. Gold finished the year on a strong note, with Managed Money reaching a net-long position of 50k. This is the largest net long position for Managed Money going back to June 2022.

The Fed has Missed the Balance Sheet Mortgage Back Security Reduction Target Reduction Every Single Month

The Fed has a targeted balance sheet reduction of $95B a month. After reaching and exceeding this target last month, the Fed is back to undershooting. This should not come as a surprise given the turmoil in the bond market this year and the lack of liquidity.