Peter's Blog

National Debt Analysis: Treasury Prepares for Another Debt Ceiling Saga

Another debt ceiling fight is looming on the horizon and it appears the US Treasury Department is preparing for the drama. Meanwhile, rising interest rates are rapidly increasing the cost of the massive national debt.

Jobs Report: Only Education and Government are Above Trend

Despite the better-than-expected headline number, the job market continues to slow. According to the BLS, the economy added 261k jobs in October with a big upward revision in September from 263k to 315k. October was a beat against median expectations of 205k. The employment rate (black line) increased from 3.5% to 3.7% while the labor […]

Trade Deficit: The First Deficit Increase in Six Months

The September Trade Deficit increased for the first time in 6 months to -$73.3B. The deficit had been getting help from exports out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. As shown by the chart below, the increase this month was from a drop in Exports combined with an increase in Imports. The current value is still […]

Will Managed Money Get Stuck Holding the Short Straw?

Managed money has controlled the gold and silver market over the last several months. But there are other dynamics going on unnoticed under the surface. Please note: the CoTs report was published 10/28/2022 for the period ending 10/25/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.

Comex Results: This Game Has Changed

“How did you go bankrupt?” “Very slowly at first, and then very quickly?” The data shows that the Comex is in the middle of experiencing a run on its vaults that is really taking its toll and continuing to accelerate. If you read no further in this analysis, first just take a look at Figure […]

The Fed is Still Coming up Short on QT

The Fed is supposed to be reducing the balance sheet by $95B a month. This is up from $47.5B before September. As the chart below shows, the Fed has only succeeded in meeting or exceeding its goal a single time (August) in 6 months. In the latest month, the Fed came up 25% short with a […]

Money Supply Growth Rate Still Negative

Money Supply shrunk last month by $129B, the largest monthly fall ever going back to 1959. April and June also set records at the time from a gross change perspective. From a percentage amount, Feb. 1970 had been the largest contraction ever (-6.5% annualized), but the current month beat that number at -6.9% annualized.

Student Loan Forgiveness Creates Largest September Deficit Ever

The Federal Government ran a $430 billion deficit in September. It was the largest monthly deficit since March 2021 when the last Covid stimulus bill was passed. The massive surge this month was due to another Biden giveaway in the form of $437 billion in student loan forgiveness.

The Technical Picture: More Time is Needed Before a Sustainable Rally Begins

The price analysis of gold and silver last month discussed the technical damage done and highlighted how support had become resistance. It concluded, “When everything is so lopsidedly bearish, it can signify capitulation. That said, beware of trying to catch a falling knife. Because of the technical drivers in gold and silver, moves tend to […]

Comex Update: At This Rate the Silver Metal Will be Gone in Months

Let’s say you were a country or a group of very wealthy individuals and Covid hits. You see governments around the world print money like crazy. It makes you think there might be some inflation to deal with and you want to protect yourself. Gold and silver are the logical choices. So, if you decide […]