Peter's Blog

Price Analysis: Support Becomes Resistance

The price analysis last month titled Caution Warranted in the Short Term, highlighted the potential risk in gold and silver after a rough July and early August. It concluded the path was much less clear. There were two possible paths forward: Gold could be range bound again between $1750-$1800, or, a hawkish Fed at the Jackson […]

Comex Update: September Gold Delivery Volume Blasts Higher

September gold has been a very strong delivery month with 8,573 contracts being delivered plus an additional 718 in open interest that will be delivered over the next week (9,219 total). It is currently still below the July month but could exceed the total by the time the month completes due to mid-month activity.

Comex Stock Report: The Vaults are Still Bleeding

This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.

Treasury Runs Largest August Deficit Ever as Interest Costs Soar

The federal government ran a $220 billion deficit in August. It was the largest monthly deficit since last July.

August CPI Shows Inflation Getting Stickier

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for August came in nearly flat again at 0.09% MoM, dropping to 8.3% YoY. Expectations had been for -0.1% MoM and 8.1% YoY so the market had a very negative reaction to the report.

US Debt: Annualized Interest Surges More Than $22B in a Single Month

The Treasury added $341B of debt in August. This was the largest increase in the debt since January and is more than 10 times larger than the increase in July. Another major occurrence was the increase in short-term debt. The Treasury increased Bills by $210B, the largest increase since June 2020. This is a move […]

Trade Deficit Still Historically High Despite Fall Since March

The trade deficit fell in July to -$70.7 billion. It was the fourth straight month of drops. While the deficit continues to fall from all-time highs, it is very large relative to deficits prior to 2022. Despite the large 33% fall from the -$107 billion in March, the current deficit would have been an all-time […]

CFTC Report: Silver Net Short Position Reaches New High for the Move

As highlighted last month, short positioning in gold was at the highest level since April 2019. This laid the seeds for a potential short squeeze. While a squeeze did unfold, it was brief. Sellers have regained control of the market and are driving the price back down. Please note: the COTs report was published 9/2/2022 for […]

Jobs Report: Multiple Full-Time Job Holders Reaches All-Time High

According to the BLS, the economy added 315k jobs in August, which was on par with analyst estimates. While the job numbers continue to appear strong, a deeper look into the data shows some trends that may indicate weakness.

Is the Fed Worried About the Mortgage Market?

Is the Federal Reserve worried about the tanking mortgage and housing market? If their holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are any indication, the answer is, yes. The Fed has finally started shrinking its overall balance sheet as promised, but they are not shedding MBS according to plan.