Peter's Blog

Data Anomaly Causes October Trade Deficit to Shrink

The October trade deficit fell but the drop was primarily due to a data anomaly. October 2021 charted a total trade deficit of -$67.1 billion. It was the lowest trade deficit since April 2021. Month-on-month, the trade deficit fell 17% from the record set in September.

US Debt: The Landscape Has Changed and the Fed Can Do Nothing About it

Similar to August and September, the total national debt has not increased due to the current debt ceiling that’s in place. Similar to August, the Treasury has raided public retirement accounts to continue funding government spending (light green bar below). Looking at the bigger picture, Covid has forever shifted the landscape of US Debt.

Hedge Funds are Driving Price Action in the Gold Market

Looking at the data, it appears hedge funds are currently driving price action in the gold market Please note: the COTs report was published 12/3/2021 for the period ending 11/30/2021. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.

Jobs Analysis: What if Leisure and Hospitality has Fully Recovered?

November was the weakest jobs report of the year, coming in at a paltry 210,000, missing consensus expectations of 573,000. There were modest revisions upwards over the last two months of 8,000 and 15,000 for September and October respectively. Nothing to be excited about.

Gold and Silver Delivery Requests Near 1 Year Highs Prompting Cash Settlements

Gold and silver delivery requests from the Comex neared a 1-year high in November. Note: This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail. Additionally, numbers from Comex for December 1 are still preliminary as of publishing. Numbers may change some.

What Taper? Fed Adds $126 Billion to Balance Sheet in November

The Fed added $82 billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) and $65 billion in Treasuries to its balance sheet while allowing $22 billion in repo agreements to roll off the balance sheet. The net gain was $126 billion in the month that the “taper” was set to begin.

Someone Took Immediate Delivery of 741 Comex Silver Contracts in November (So Far)

With several days to go in the month, the number of silver contracts taken for immediate delivery at the Comex already stands at 741, more than double the total in November 2020. That raises two big questions: who is taking delivery of all this metal mid-month? And more importantly, what are they anticipating? This analysis […]

Money Supply Growth Accelerates Into Year-End

So much for fighting inflation. Despite the Fed’s announcement that quantitative easing tapering would begin this month, money supply growth appears to be accelerating. In the latest period, M2 increased by $193 billion, eclipsing the $21 trillion mark. This represents a 0.91% month-on-month increase. That annualizes to 11.6%. This is above the six-month average indicating […]

Will Gold Blast Through $1900 on a Brainard Nomination This Weekend?

Gold finally broke through the $1,800 resistance after yet another sizzling hot CPI read. Could $1,900 be next? The analysis last month and the month before showed that a breakout in the price of gold looked to be very close. It happened!

Comex Vaults See Another Big Fall in Inventory

Gold stocks in the Comex vaults have recorded another significant drop since the beginning of the month. Silver inventories have also dropped over the last few months. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the […]