Peter's Blog

Jobs: Household Survey and Downward Revisions Paint a Much Bleaker Employment Picture

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

ECB Cuts Interest Rates Amid Persistent Economic Risks

On June 5th, the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council announced another round of interest rate reductions, lowering key rates by 25 basis points. Starting June 11th, the deposit facility rate will fall to 2.00%, the main refinancing operations rate to 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility rate to 2.40%. This move underscores the ECB’s […]

Trump Needs the Money Printer

Trump has a long history of begging the Fed to print money, and in his second term, that hasn’t changed a bit. In fact, he needs the free money spigots to turn on to delay a collapse that, otherwise, he’d be blamed for.

Inflation Remains Stubbornly High in Mexico, Food Prices Surge

Mexico’s latest inflation numbers released by INEGI (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía) on June 9th reveal continued fragility in the economy despite official reassurances. For the month of May, inflation rose 0.28% month-over-month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 4.42%. While the central bank and policymakers emphasize easing inflationary pressures, persistently high prices for […]

Fed’s Harker Warns Tariff Risks, Debt Threaten Economic Stability in Farewell Speech

Delivering his final public remarks as President and CEO of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve on yesterday, Patrick T. Harker urged caution regarding inflation, tariff policies, and rising national debt, highlighting enduring challenges to U.S. economic stability. The speech occurred at the Philadelphia Fed, marking the culmination of Harker’s tenure before his scheduled retirement at month-end. […]

How Inflation Undermines Culture and Values

Inflation has come to be one the defining economic phenomena of this generation. As the money supply grows seemingly without end, it’s easy to miss how the erosion of our money wreaks both economic and – more subtly– cultural havoc.

Free Markets: From Competition to Cooperation

Critics of free markets often argue that the competition found in markets is akin to animals in the wild; in the “dog-eat-dog” world of capitalism, they say, people must fight for survival. In this argument, however, lies insidious equivocation. On the contrary, markets are the most effective means for promoting both peace and social cooperation.

The Fed Drops QT to $5B a Month – Ensuring the Balance Sheet Will Stay Bloated

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.

Why Critics of Free Markets Can’t Resist Free-Market Platforms

While free trade has never been universally popular in America, today its principles are under economic and moral attack from both the left and the right. Yet, the greatest concession that opponents of free trade make is, ironically, their love of the services that the market makes available to them.

What’s Behind the Logic of Today’s U.S. Tariff Policy?

Last week the Trump administration hinted at the possibility of new tariffs that would target the European Union and tech giant Apple. As the presidency continues to flip flop on this issue, American citizens should only conclude that the protectionist right is hopelessly deluded on trade.