Peter's Blog

Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: Are the Gold Shorts About to Get Squeezed?

Please note: the COT report was published 7/29/2022 for the period ending 7/26/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. As discussed last month, overall net positioning is the smallest it has been since May 2019. Then, on July 12, Managed Money went short gold for the first time since April 2019. Are those shorts […]

Comex Deliveries: August Gold Starts Strong

Delivery volume in the July gold contract got off to the weakest start in years, but then had a major mid-month rally, turning it into one of the strongest minor months in recent history. Over the last 15 months, it only trailed the blow-out month of March. Momentum has continued in the August contract.

Fed Balance Sheet Reduction: Too Little Too Late

Another month in and the Fed is still struggling to implement Quantitative Tightening (QT). According to the plan the Fed outlined last May, the central bank should be shrinking the balance sheet by at least $47.5B a month, spread between $30B in Treasuries and $17.5B in MBS. That’s not happening.

Money Supply Growth Rate Drops Below 2008 Level

Money Supply growth is falling rapidly. Two of the last three months have seen a decrease in the seasonally adjusted M2 Money Supply with the recent month dropping $17B. Given that April was the first contraction in 12 years, two of the last three months being negative is an ominous sign.

Technical Analysis: Is This Capitulation?

The price analysis two months ago concluded that a neutral market had been found between $1800 and $1850 and was waiting to see a break of resistance or support. It leaned bullish with indicators showing the down move had run its course but it also highlighted the risk that a drop below $1800 and $1750 brings $1680 […]

Comex Update: Gold Sees Massive Delivery Volume Mid-Month

Gold started July delivery activity as the weakest minor month since 2019. This showed a general lack of interest in the market. Considering the activity since then, it’s possible this was a signal of capitulation. Since the start of the delivery month, activity in the July gold contract has exploded.

Comex Inventory: Why is Registered Collapsing During Backwardation?

This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.

Treasury Fails to Capitalize on Record Tax Revenues

The Federal Government ran an $89B deficit in June. This was an increase MoM but below the June deficit last year of $174B.

June YoY CPI Was Horrific – The Next Three Months Could Be Worse

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for June came in at a blistering 1.35% MoM and 9.11% YoY, beating expectations of 1.1% and 8.8% respectively. All prices rose in May with 8 of 11 categories rising faster than the 12-month trend, representing 94.7% of the total CPI.

Treasury Interest Cost Will Soar Past $500B in the Months Ahead

The US government increased its total debt by $69 billion in June. The average interest rate on all of that debt is also going up, a growing problem for the borrow and spend government. The Treasury Department continues to roll short-term Treasury Bills into longer-dated securities, allowing $148B in Bills to roll off the debt […]