Peter's Blog

Jobs Report: Revisions Have Turned Negative

According to the BLS, the economy added 372k jobs in June. This exceeded the 250k market expectations and seems to indicate the labor market is more resilient than the rest of the economy which the Atlanta Fed currently forecasts as being already in recession. While resiliency is a positive sign for the economy, a strong […]

Yearly Trade Deficit Approaches $1T

The May trade deficit came in at -$86B. This was another MoM decline but the monthly deficit is still significantly larger than it was at any point before 2022 as shown below. One of the biggest concerns is the Services Surplus contracting by 8.1%.

COTs Report Shows the Most Neutral Precious Metals Market in Years

The technical analysis last weekend highlighted that gold looks to be in a bottoming structure. Despite the sell-off this week, $1800 held, which could be another indication that gold is in the process of bottoming, with some final weak hands getting pushed out of the market. Please note: the COTs report was published 7/3/2022 for the period […]

Comex Results: Gold and Silver Fail to Deliver

Both silver and gold had their weakest COMEX delivery months in several years. Gold started July delivery with 937 contracts outstanding. This is the lowest level since November of last year and the second-lowest since the start of Covid (see figure 2).

Did the Fed Forget to Start QT?

The first month of Federal Reserve balance sheet reduction turned out to be a big dud. As it turns out, the balance sheet shrank by less than $1 billion in June during the first month of quantitative tightening. As part of its vaunted inflation fight, the Fed announced in May that Quantitative Tightening (QT) was […]

Money Supply Growth Slows Enough to Pop Everything Bubble; Not Enough to Cure Inflation

According to the seasonally adjusted data, M2 increased by $23B in May. Except for the contraction last month (the first contraction in 12 years), it was the smallest monthly increase in M2 since the start of COVID.

Technical Analysis: Gold is Building Solid Support

After a big miss on the Powell/Brainard nominations in November, the price analysis has been fairly accurate. Identifying the initial breakout above $1800, mentioning that $1900 was fragile support, and last month concluding that gold had found a bottom around $1800. For the past month, gold has been consolidating within a tight range around $1850. The data suggests the next […]

Comex Countdown: What’s Really Going on With Silver?

This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail. The Comex has signaled weakness in the silver market but has been some activity bubbling under the surface. What’s really going on with silver?

Comex Inventory: Gold Outflows Accelerate While Silver Sees Significant Shuffling

Outflows of gold from Comex vaults have accelerated. Meanwhile, there is some shuffling of inventories of silver. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical […]

CBO Does Not Expect Revenue Surge to Last

After running the largest monthly surplus ever in April, the Treasury was back to running deficits in May. The Federal government spent $455B in May and collected $389B in taxes, which resulted in a net deficit of $66B.