Peter's Blog

Quantitative Easing Has Seemingly Ended (for now)

It appears quantitative easing has pretty much come to an end. At least for now. Although the Fed was still expanding the balance sheet through mid-month, it only added a net $9B to the balance sheet during March. This was accomplished with moderate purchases of short- and long-term debt, while 5–10-year notes had a $20B […]

Gold Enters April Delivery on a Strong Note

Based on COMEX data, gold is set to have another strong month in April, which is not surprising given the lead-up.

Comex April Countdown: Silver Pops Higher with Gold Trending Strong

The big action in silver occurred early in the month, making March a pretty large outlier. First, it continues the recent trend of increasing deliveries. Second, deliveries were 8.7% of the max open interest for the month. This is the highest percentage since July 2020 when prices took off. There are still 24 open interest […]

Money Supply Growth Is Rapidly Decelerating

No doubt, money supply growth is decelerating but is still far from contractionary. According to the seasonally adjusted data, M2 expanded by $83billion in February. January was revised down from $245 billion to $176 billion.

Are Gold and Silver Approaching a Tipping Point?

Data coming from the COMEX could indicate growing pressure for a breakout in gold and silver. COMEX data has shown large deviations for several months. Most of this occurred before Russia invaded Ukraine and these deviations have grown larger since. The invasion seems to have accelerated trends that were already in place.

Technical Analysis: Resting Between Fragile Support and Weak Resistance

Gold is currently tucked between fragile support and weak resistance. Both gold and silver have been on a wild ride for the past several weeks. The last technical analysis showed how gold had broken through the lengthy consolidation pattern between $1750-$1800, with the Ukraine crisis pushing the metal through $1900.

Banks Are Restocking Gold at Fastest Pace in Years

Banks are in the process of restocking gold at a pace not seen in years. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of […]

Bulls Beware the Margin Lever

Over the past couple of weeks, I have focused on the activity at the Comex for the upcoming delivery months. While the data still supports a very bullish near-term posture as shown below, aggressive longs should consider when and how margin rates could be used to rein in prices.

Treasury Runs Largest Deficit in 8 Months After First Surplus in 2.5 Years

In January, the US Treasury realized its first surplus in 2.5 years. The surplus was short-lived. The Treasury went in the red by $216.6 billion in February.

Comex Update: First Gold and Now Silver

Weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I highlighted Comex data points that could signal a big move ahead in gold. The invasion may have been the spark to light the fire, but the data showed the groundwork was being laid back in January. Silver has now sent up its own flare that may be […]