Peter's Blog

Inflation Up 0.8% Month-on-Month and Shows No Sign of Slowing

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for January was 0.8% month over month. The non-seasonally adjusted annual rate came in at 7.87%. Both of these numbers were slightly above expectations. Unlike last year, where one component made up the bulk of the move, the past several months have shown increases more evenly spread across the […]

Trade Deficit: Another Record Shattered

January saw another record trade deficit. The $89.7 billion deficit shattered the $82 billion record set in December by 9.4%! Before March 2021, the Trade Deficit monthly record had been set in August 2006 at -$68B. This record stood for nearly 15 years! Records are now being broken almost every single month.

Treasury Adds Another $94B in Short-Term Debt and $278B Overall

Debt issuance by the US Treasury has fallen since the binge in December when the Treasury had to replenish its “extraordinary measures” stockpiles (government employee retirement funds) after the end of the “debt ceiling” debate. Still, issuance remains relatively high. The Treasury added another $278 billion in debt during February. Similar to January, the Treasury […]

February was a Strong Jobs Report Across All Measures

February was another very strong jobs month with the economy adding an estimated 678,000 jobs vs an expected 400,000. The unemployment rate came in at 3.8%, down from 4%. Labor force participation also improved, rising from 62.2% to 62.3%. Both December and January numbers were revised upwards.

Comex Results February Becomes the Month of Adjustments

There have been some major adjustments to headline data numbers so far in February from the BLS, the Fed, and now the Comex. This analysis focuses on gold and silver delivery volume on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.

COTs Analysis: Will Hedge Funds Stick Around This Time?

The previous Commitment of Traders analysis showed how much influence Managed Money has over the short-term price movement of gold and silver. The table below summarizes this influence by comparing the Managed Money Net Positioning with “Other”, the next largest category. Swap is not considered because it typically sits opposite the other two.

Comex Countdown: 1 Day to Go – March Delivery Could Set Records

As mentioned yesterday, daily updates into the March close are warranted given the extreme situation in the market. Today is First Position, which means the data tonight will give the first indication of March deliveries. Let’s get into it…

The Fed Pulls Back on Treasuries but Dives in on Mortgage-Backed Securities

Even with the taper, the Fed continues to expand its balance sheet. And it’s not tapering the purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) nearly as fast as advertised.

Comex Countdown: Two Days to Go as War Begins

Usually, I only do one Comex Countdown into the close, but… you know… a war just started. Throw on top the fact that the Comex has been flashing warning signs lately, and I think a daily update is warranted for the next three days. It’s very possible delivery volume is very robust which could put pressure […]

Seasonal Adjustments – Did Money Supply Expand or Contract?

According to the seasonally adjusted data, M2 expanded by $245 billion in January. However, when looking at the raw, non-seasonally adjusted M2 data, the money supply contracted by $214 billion. That would be the largest contraction since Jan 2013. How do we parse out this data?