Peter's Blog

The Technicals: Is the Gold and Silver Rally Sustainable?

Gold and silver have both rallied in recent weeks, with the price of gold pushing to $1,900 an ounce. But is this rally sustainable? Following is some technical analysis of both the gold and silver markets.

Comex Countdown: Feb, March, and April All Flashing Yellow

The last article highlighted the strange things going on in the gold market. Specifically: Cash settlement instead of delivery for February Increased open interest in March Slightly higher spread cost in April. Recent weeks have seen several flashing yellow signs in the gold market.

Comex Vaults See Inventory Fall 3% in the Last Month

Gold continues to flow out of COMEX vaults at a rapid pace. Inventory fell 3% in the last month alone. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail.

Treasury Realizes First Surplus in Nearly 2.5 Years

The US Treasury realized a monthly surplus of $118.7 billion in January. It was the first budget surplus since September 2019 and the largest since it realized a $160 billion surplus in April of 2019. The surplus was driven by high revenue from a continued surge in Individual Taxes. This was combined with shrinking expenditures […]

Unrounded MoM CPI Was 0.65%; Price Increases Are Widespread

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for January was 0.65% month over month, with a non-seasonally adjusted annual rate of 7.48%. Both of these numbers came in above expectations. As hypothesized last month, it was very possible that Omicron temporarily restrained inflation in December and a rebound should be expected. It did not take long for […]

2021 Trade Deficit Shatters Historical Record Set Back in 2006

In December 2021, the US ran up a total trade deficit of -$80.7 billion, just a tick shy of the record -$80.8 billion set in September. The Goods Deficit increased by 3.2% to come in at -$101.4B, eclipsing the -$100B mark for the first time ever. This capped off a year in which the trade […]

Are There Tremors in the Gold Market?

As reported last week, multiple data points in the COMEX are starting to flash yellow in the gold market. Cash settlements are at a recent high, open interest has spiked in March to way above normal, and roll costs are creeping up. Are these tremors in the gold market?

Treasury Increases Short-Term Debt by $200B as Total Debt Crosses $30T

The Treasury added almost $400 billion of debt in January, the third most since July 2020. As the month closed out, the national debt eclipsed $30 trillion. The other two larger debt increases both came right after the debt ceiling was raised. Perhaps most important is the fact that almost $200B of the newly added […]

Don’t Get Too Excited; Most of These Revised Job Gains Were Already Counted

January showed very strong growth with 467k new jobs reported by the BLS. This crushed expectations of 150k. Some analysts even projected a contraction given the reported loss by ADP on Wednesday. However, the bigger story is the revisions of prior months. October to December saw upward revisions of nearly 900k jobs! The story is […]

What is the Comex Gold Market Signaling?

As reported last week, Comex January turned out to be extremely strong in both gold and silver for a minor month. Most of that strength materialized after First Position. February was looking modest in gold and weak in silver, but the gold market is now showing outlier trends. This analysis focuses on gold and silver delivery […]